Ivorian military and security top brass pledged allegiance to Gbagbo
at a "military-religious" meeting at the United Methodist Temple in
the Abidjan neighborhood of Cocody Ambassades (Jeune Afrique, 12-18
December, 2010).
Beside the fact that this shows that Gbagbo did plan to stay in power
way before the presidential election was held, the weird thing that
leaps out is that religion was factored in the political and military
equation. Weird but a more and more common phenomenon in Africa. In
the DRC, politicos use The Holy Bible as a political reference book
and last year the tearful Congolese First Lady was shown on TV leading
a revivalist prayer at the opening of her 3-day countrywide fast for
national redemption! In Burundi, the head of state is also an
evangelical pastor who preaches every Sunday in front of huge
tongue-speaking audiences. In Uganda, Yoweri Museveni wears his
religion on his sleeve. During his years in exile in France, Gbagbo
was also a part-time Methodist preacher. How he now reconciles
Judeo-Christian tenets with his two wives (Véronique Gbagbo and Nadie
Bamba) is anybody's guess. My guess is that Gbagbo has gone syncretic
like his fellow African preachers... An exception that confirms the
rule: President Ali Bongo of Gabon was recently made a Freemason Grand
Master in replacement of his deceased father!
With the steady rise of evangelical fundamentalism in Africa, maybe in
20 years time "Christian republics" will sprout up all over the
continent. This isn't far-fetched at all: during his tenure the
deposed Malagasy president, also an evangelical, had the constitution
amended to have "Christianity" as the state religion!
The senior officers at Gbagbo's mid-August 2010 low mass included: 1)
Gen Philippe Mangou, chief of staff of the Forces de Défense et de
Sécurité (FDS), the Ivorian army; 2) Gen Guiai Bin Poin, chief of
CESOS (Centre de Commandement des Opérations de Seconde Zone), rumored
to be the real boss of the army; 3) Gen Dogbo Blé, chief of the
Presidential Guard; 4) Gen Firmin Detoh Letho, infantry commander; 5)
Commander Jean-Noël Abehi, head of the armored unit; 6)Gen Bruno
Dogbgo, head of the Republican Guard; 7) Rear-admiral Vagba
Faussignaux, commander of the national naval force; 8) Commander
Boniface Konan, marines commander; and 9) Colonel-major Nathanaël
Brouaha Ehouman, head of the Presidential Security.
Little wonder then that Guillaume Soro, the PM-designate of Ouattara,
said that Gbagbo's "coup d'etat" was actually carried out by some of
these generals. Btw, the joke now in Côte d'Ivoire is to call the
Hôtel du Golfe, where Alassane Dramane Ouattara and his cabinet are
holed up, the Hotel Republic of the Gulf.
Gbagbo may hold countless more low masses at the United Methodist
Temple with senior army and security personnel, but in Africa
allegiances are bought with monies. And these will soon be scarce in
Gbagbo's coffers.
African senior military officers are often nouveaux riches living in
the here and now, who as rule are unwilling to stake their fortunes in
such flimsy allegiances, as one security source told reporter
Baudelaire Mieu:
"Within the general staff, a good number of officers don't feel like
going to war. People have so much enriched themselves that they won't
take risks. They seek above all to protect their patrimony and to
preserve their lives."
No wonder then that France and the European Union go out of their way
in wooing these generals: most of them (including Gen Philippe Mangou)
are not on the list of Gbagbo's entourage targeted for sanctions. Some
of these generals are even alleged to have already told Gbagbo they
wouldn't order their troops to fire upon unarmed civilians--not on the
basis of some intangible humanitarian principles but in order to avoid
being dragged one day at the International Criminal Court at The
Hague...
Well, that's it then. Nigerian troops could as well storm Abidjan
anytime they feel like doing.
That's why detailing the respective forces involved amounts to
engaging in a futile academic exercise.
At any rate, according to Baudelaire Mieu, with a 4,000-strong elite
force, Gbagbo's FDS are in theory stronger than Ouattara's Forces
Armées des Forces Nouvelles (FAFN) with only 4,000 troops. (This means
that there are in fact two warlords vying for power.)
Additionally, FDS can count on thousands more troops of the anti-riot
police, the CESOS, the infantry, the navy, and other paramilitary
units.
Gbagbo forces have also at their disposal a tiny air force made of
Sukhoi warplanes, drones, as well as Mi-24, Mi-8 and Puma copters.
These forces have antiaircraft batteries, rocket launchers and a dozen
armored vehicles. The "securocrats" in charge of arms procurement are
Bertin Cadet, Gbagbo's military advisor, and Henri Damalan Sama,
appropriately a one-time defense attaché of Côte d'Ivoire in Russia.
In contrast, the rebel Forces Armées des Forces Nouvelles (FAFN)
backing Ouattara and led by Gen Soumaïla Bakayoko, chief of staff, and
Issiaka Wattara aka Wattao, deputy chief of staff, have mostly light
weapons (machine guns and AK-47)--though this may soon change, with
French supplies.
The FAFN have an additional wild card in Abidjan, Baudelaire Mieu
claims, with many heavily armed "sleeping cells" in the neighborhoods
of Abobo, Port-Bouët 2, Koumassi and Adjamé.
Despite the ongoing dangerous crisis, the prevailing mood in Côte
d'Ivoire is that cool-headedness would pull the country from the
brink, as Mourou Ouattara, FAFN commander in the northern city of
Bouna, seems to think:
"We won't be the first to launch an attack, we'll do everything to
spare Côte d'Ivoire a bloodbath, Ivorians are tired [of war]."
But, as Baudelaire Mieu says in the conclusion of his report, "The
great fear remains an autonomous action by warmongering diehards from
both camps."
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